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基于Holt指数平滑模型的油井产量动态预测
Alternative TitleOil Well Production Dynamic Prediction Based on the Holt Exponential Smoothing Model
尚文利1,2; 张立婷1,2; 李世超1,2; 刘春宇3; 曾鹏1,2
Department工业控制网络与系统研究室
Source Publication自动化与仪表
ISSN1001-9944
2018
Volume33Issue:4Pages:68-70
Contribution Rank1
Funding Organization国家863 高技术计划项目(2015AA043901)
Keyword时间序列 Holt指数平滑模型 油井产量动态预测
Abstract

产量动态预测是油井生产动态的实时监测与调控的重要基础。该文利用时间序列分析中的Holt指数平滑模型,依据误差平方和最小原则对初始值和平滑参数α、β进行优化,考虑了所有已有时间序列的历史数据对预测值的影响,建立了一种新型的油井产量预测Holt指数平滑模型。实例计算表明,模型预测误差基本控制在10%以内。该模型具有良好的适用性和准确性,可作为油井生产计划的实时调整和辅助决策依据。

Other Abstract

Production dynamic prediction is the basis of real-time monitor and control of oil well production performance. This paper makes a production dynamic prediction using the time series analysis of Holt exponential smoothing model considering the history of all existing time series data. The method optimizes the initial values and two smoothing parameters based on the principle of minimum error sum of squares. The results show that error of the mentioned method is within 10%,so it is of good practicability and accuracy. The prediction results can be used as the basis for well adjust and control.

Language中文
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.sia.cn/handle/173321/21908
Collection工业控制网络与系统研究室
Corresponding Author尚文利
Affiliation1.中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所;
2.中科院网络化控制系统重点实验室;
3.沈阳信诚环境技术有限公司
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
尚文利,张立婷,李世超,等. 基于Holt指数平滑模型的油井产量动态预测[J]. 自动化与仪表,2018,33(4):68-70.
APA 尚文利,张立婷,李世超,刘春宇,&曾鹏.(2018).基于Holt指数平滑模型的油井产量动态预测.自动化与仪表,33(4),68-70.
MLA 尚文利,et al."基于Holt指数平滑模型的油井产量动态预测".自动化与仪表 33.4(2018):68-70.
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